America’s Boomtowns: Top Cities for Economic Growth

As the U.S. economy continues to navigate the complexities of a post-pandemic world, certain cities have emerged as beacons of prosperity and growth. The national economic landscape is characterized by a resurgence in job creation, an increase in consumer spending and significant technological advancements. Amidst these trends, cities that adapt to changing economic conditions and leverage their unique assets are thriving.

With this in mind, we looked at the latest available data to identify the top cities fostering economic growth. By assessing metrics such as population growth, GDP, employment rates, trade activity, and other economic indicators, we’ve compiled a detailed report showcasing these thriving urban centers. This article will delve into the top cities for economic growth, divided into three sections: small cities with populations under 250,000, mid-sized cities (between 250,000 and 500,00), and large cities (over 500,000).

Urban Giants: The Top Large Cities for Economic Growth

Mesa, AZ – 66 points

Mesa, AZ, leads the list for large cities, driven by impressive gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 38% between 2018 and 2022 and employment growth of 2%. Infrastructure also improved in the four year timeframe in Mesa, registering an uptick of 34%. This robust economic performance can be linked to several strategic initiatives and factors. Mesa’s focus on diversifying its economy has attracted numerous tech companies, bolstering the city’s GDP and creating high-quality jobs. Additionally, the city’s investment in infrastructure, including transportation and public amenities, has made it a more attractive place for businesses and residents alike.

Fort Worth, TX – 64 points

Fort Worth, TX, takes the second spot in the large population bracket. The city’s population has grown by 7%, totaling 957,000 in 2022, while its education attainment rate is at 10% – the highest among large cities. The city has also made significant investments in housing, evidenced by the 11% growth since 2018. Fort Worth has strategically leveraged its geographic advantages and diversified its economy, attracting businesses in various sectors, including technology, healthcare, and logistics.

This economic diversity has been a key factor in sustaining employment and population growth. The rise in housing has not only provided more living spaces but also spurred related economic activities, including construction and real estate development, further contributing to the city’s economic dynamism.

Phoenix, AZ – 63 points

Phoenix, AZ, ranks third, bolstered by an evolving infrastructure and growing GDP. But those are not the only metrics where Phoenix stands out. 54% more business applications were registered between 2018-2022, reaching an impressive total of 83,305. This surge in entrepreneurial activity has been accompanied by a 2% drop in the unemployment rate, indicating a dynamic but competitive job market.

Sacramento, CA – 62 points

Sacramento, CA, trails behind Phoenix in fourth place. The city’s growing population has a focus on academics, with the education attainment rising by 8% since 2018. Additionally, median earnings and employment also grew considerably, 30% and 2%, respectively. Institutions like Sacramento State University and the Los Rios Community College District play pivotal roles in providing quality education and fostering a skilled workforce. The significant increase in median earnings indicates a thriving local economy that offers lucrative job opportunities across various sectors, including technology, healthcare, and public administration.

Meanwhile, Austin, TX, rounds out the top five, alongside Fresno, CA, with a total score of 59.9.

Mid-Sized Economic Powerhouses: Top Mid-Sized Cities for Economic Growth

Gilbert, AZ – 67 points

Leading the mid-sized city category, Gilbert, AZ, excels with a total score of 67, almost 10 points ahead of runner-up Jersey City. This is mostly driven by a substantial GDP growth of 38%, the second highest among mid-sized cities. One sign that Gilbert is growing beyond expectations is its uptick in infrastructure and housing units. People are choosing Gilbert as a place to move or grow their family more than they did in 2018. As a result, in 2022, the city’s population was 10% higher. Known for its high quality of life, Gilbert offers excellent schools, parks, and a strong sense of community, making it a desirable place to live and work.

Jersey City, NJ – 59 points

Jersey City, NJ, secures the second spot among mid-sized cities. Median earnings have increased in Jersey the most out of all mid-sized cities analyzed – by 45% between 2018 and 2022. Chilltown has a population growth rate of 10% and significant advancements in trade, with exports growing by 23%. Additionally, crime rate in the area dropped by a whopping 26%, making Jersey City a safer space.

Chandler, AZ – 58.7 points

Meanwhile, Chandler, AZ, ranks third for this population bracket. The city has experienced improvements in infrastructure evolution, scoring best for this metric with a 34% growth. Another sign of Chandler’s economic advancement is the 38% uptick in GDP, as it continues to thrive within the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metropolitan area. The city’s business-friendly environment and strategic investments have spurred its economic success. Chandler is home to several high-tech manufacturing firms and a growing number of startups, contributing to its dynamic economy.

St. Petersburg, FL – 57.5 points

St. Petersburg, FL, holds the fourth position with a total score of 57.5. Business applications are on the rise in St. Petersburg by a whopping 81% and it has seen significant improvements in trade, with exports almost doubling by 2022. This economic surge can be attributed to the city’s strategic waterfront location, which has bolstered its trade capabilities. Additionally, St. Petersburg’s investment in infrastructure and innovation-friendly policies has created an attractive environment for entrepreneurs.

Stockton, CA – 56.9 points

Stockton, CA, rounds out the top five with a total score of 56.9. The outstanding 86% growth in the number of business applications that Stockton registered between 2018 and 2022 seems to go hand in hand with the plummeting of the unemployment rate in the same period (by 3%). The decline in unemployment is also reflective of the city’s investments in workforce development programs, which have equipped residents with the skills needed for new job opportunities. The Reinvent South Stockton Coalition has been instrumental in fostering a supportive ecosystem for small businesses and entrepreneurs, enhancing employment opportunities and overall economic stability in the area.

Small But Mighty: Top Small-Sized Cities for Economic Growth

Nampa, ID – 62 points

Nampa, ID, leads the list for cities with populations under 250,000. The city excels with a population growth of 15% between 2018 and 2022 and a growing GDP, reflecting a dynamic economic environment. Additionally, Nampa ranks second among small cities when it comes to unemployment rate, which registered a 4% drop, sitting at 3% in 2022. The city’s proactive local policies have fostered an environment conducive to business and economic development. Nampa’s proximity to Boise, ID, provides additional economic opportunities and resources, making it an attractive location for new businesses and residents.

San Bernardino, CA – 59 points

San Bernardino, CA, is our small cities runner-up, coming behind Nampa at a three point difference. The city’s employment rate is now at 56% after registering a 4% growth between 2018-2022, coupled with advancements in trade and exports, which grew by 16%.  As a result, median earnings grew by 45% in San Bernardino – from $23,000 to $33,000 in 2022 – the city ranking third in this metric. San Bernardino’s diverse economic base, which includes strong healthcare, education, and logistics sectors, supports its strong performance. Additionally, the city’s efforts in revitalizing downtown and improving public safety have contributed to its economic resurgence.

Port St. Lucie, FL – 57 points

Port St. Lucie, FL, ranks third with a total score of 57. The city boasts a bigger population, growing by 19% between 2018 and 2022, which may be the reason why developers have their eyes set on this small Florida town, the area gaining 18% more housing units in the same timeframe. And, it seems that Port St. Lucie is also becoming a hotbed for entrepreneurs, evidenced by the impressive 89% growth in business applications. Known for its beautiful beaches and outdoor recreational activities, Port St. Lucie attracts both tourists and new residents, further bolstering its economy.

Murfreesboro, TN – 56.3 points

Murfreesboro, TN, holds the fourth position on our large city list. The city’s population grew by 15% between 2018 and 2022, and it has seen substantial improvements in trade in the same timeframe, with exports increasing by 7%.  Home to Middle Tennessee State University, it’s clear that education is an important factor in Murfreesboro, with educational attainment surging by 18% since 2018.

Surprise, AZ – 55.9 points

Surprise, AZ, rounds out the list, trailing behind Murfreesboro. The city stands out with a 38% uptick in GDP and is ranked 4th among small cities with one of the best- evolving infrastructures. Surprise, Arizona, offers a blend of small-town charm and big-city amenities, making it an attractive place for families, retirees, and businesses alike.

Methodology

For this analysis, data was compiled from various reliable sources to evaluate the evolution of key economic and social indicators from 2018 to 2022. The analysis focuses on the following indicators:

1. Median Earnings: Sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS), this metric looks at the inflation-adjusted median earnings over the past 12 months. The data is directly proportional, meaning higher values result in more points.
2. Business Applications: Data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics (BFS) is used, covering county-level data. This indicator is also directly proportional.
3. Crime Rate: Crime data is obtained from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program. The metric is indirectly proportional, meaning lower crime rates result in more points.
4. Educational Attainment: This indicator uses data from the ACS, focusing on the percentage of the population with educational qualifications. Higher educational attainment rates lead to more points.
5. Employment Rate: Employment data from the ACS is used to measure the employment rate. This metric is directly proportional.
6. Unemployment Rate: Also sourced from the ACS, the unemployment rate is indirectly proportional, with lower rates resulting in higher points.
7. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is used at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level. Higher GDP values result in more points.
8. Housing Units: This metric from the ACS measures the number of housing units and is directly proportional.
9. Infrastructure (Total Roadway Miles): Data from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) is used at the MSA level. More roadway miles indicate better infrastructure, leading to higher points.
10. Population Growth: Sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau, this metric measures the population growth rate, with higher growth resulting in more points.
11. Trade-Exports: Export data is gathered from the International Trade Administration, with higher exports leading to more points.

Weighting and Scoring
Each indicator is assigned a weight based on its relevance and impact on the overall evaluation:
• Median Earnings: 10 points
• Business Applications: 15 points
• Crime Rate: 5 points
• Educational Attainment: 5 points
• Employment Rate: 10 points
• Unemployment Rate: 10 points
• GDP: 15 points
• Housing Units: 5 points
• Infrastructure: 5 points
• Population Growth: 10 points
• Trade-Exports: 10 points

Cities are ranked based on their total scores, with higher scores indicating better overall performance. The scores reflect each city’s performance relative to others within the same population bracket, ensuring fair comparison.